"We see much more certainty for 2014," the head of the international monetary fund (imf) told nbc on sunday.
She based her optimistic assessment on the settlement of the budget dispute in the u.S., the decline in unemployment and the u.S. Federal reserve’s monetary policy turnaround. The central bank had announced on 18. December, the federal reserve announced that it would reduce its very expansive monetary policy somewhat from january by buying fewer bonds. This eliminates the major factors of uncertainty that the IMF had always warned about in the past.
The positive assessment of the u.S. Economy at the beginning of the week led to a buying mood on the german stock market and also to a friendly mood on the asian markets. On monday morning, the german stock index dax climbed to a new record high. The american dow jones also rose sharply at first.
However, lagarde did not provide any concrete information on the new forecast. Experts believe that the IMF will publish its revised forecast in january. Recently the situation on the american job market had improved surprisingly significantly. In november, the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly sharply from 7.3 percent the previous month to 7.0 percent. In the USA, the economy has embarked on a "sustainable growth path," lagarde said in the interview.
In the third quarter, the world’s largest economy had already gained momentum much more strongly than previously thought. For the months of july through september, the U.S. Government on friday reported annualized economic growth of 4.1 percent, a significant upward revision of a previous estimate. Economists surprised by strong third quarter growth figures.
In october, the IMF last forecast growth of 2.6 percent for the world’s largest economy in 2014. Economic growth of 1.6 percent allowed for in the year to end.